This is a common blending of scientific theory and observational descriptions of human behavior and making an attempt to explain one with the other. In actuality, these are two separate phenomena but can merge in certain circumstances. So it does not hold that because confirmation bias can be demonstrated to occur, based on statistically analyzed data, that does not mean it gives rise to superstition necessarily, even though it is creating false assumptions. When people link an experience, like doing better when first trying something new and then having a decline in performance, to make the assumption luck is somehow a factor that helps a beginner but then is somehow mysteriously unavailable, or actively withdrawn to thwart them in repeating a prior good performance, is a leap of logic beyond reason and dives into “magical thinking” based on no objective reality whatsoever. This superstition, of beginner’s luck, is actually based on a differing reality than science recognizes, and that is that humanity is under subjugation, it is being actively suppressed to dim people down, dumb them down, and interfere, even in daily activities of a mundane sort, simply as a kind of amusement and recreation for powerful beings who are running things from behind the scenes.
We understand full well that a critic could have a field day with this answer, seeing this as yet another psychological aberration, on the part of your channel here, simply tapping into some inner subconscious recesses having a paranoid nature, causing him to elaborate a conspiracy theory about boogeymen or an evil satanic force perhaps, but assuming it rests solely within his psyche as a self-created source of negativity with no basis in reality. The literal truth is, many times people do well on their first foray because no one is watching and they simply can perform well at the outset, but when they return to repeat the performance there may be something actively wanting to manipulate them, to trip them up, and going out of its way to make that happen. This, of course, would not be perceived consciously by the individual, and thus cannot be reckoned with, understood, or a new theory formulated to factor in outside forces being brought to bear to influence a person—that is the true origin of this superstition.
Many times the darkness will choose to wait until someone has achieved something in order to take it away and heighten the loss, and its consequences, from that failure. They love to pull the rug out from under the successful. It is much more thrilling for them to take down the mighty than to attack a weakling barely getting started. This fits perfectly, having many people with a personal history of initial accomplishment but then waning capability causing them to perhaps give up and assume they are no good at something when, in fact, the opposite is the case but the rewards are being denied them through a manipulation to make them fail. There is a psychological consequence of failure, especially with a prior record of success, because that will heighten the pain and perceived inadequacy in not being consistent and reliable in one’s abilities—that self‑doubt can grow and create an attitude of negativity that will undermine the self and decrease the likelihood of success overall.
But that is more likely to happen when there is an active manipulation going on, creating a painful reversal of fortune. If a person does have the talent to do something, and that is demonstrated at the outset when they first try something out, there is no good reason for them not to build on that happy circumstance with continued improvement and continued refinement of their skill and knowledge that is likely owing to inner talent. So the issue is not that they are simply lucky and getting away with something not deserved. For them to start failing takes some doing, in actuality, and would not likely happen on its own. To the extent superstitions are believed, they will infect others with illogical notions. So it is certainly, of course, possible that many people who do well at something at first, but then struggle to match their prior performance, might think themselves, or be told, they did well because it was only beginner’s luck, and that acts as a kind of cursing and, if believed, can hold power and make a person withdraw from the contest which is only an ability to overcome the self and its faulty notions.